Hello. Here is what happens:
Prices: Bitcoin and other major cryptos fell early over the weekend but regained ground and were up late on Sunday.
Knowledge: DBS Bank’s decision to abandon its retail crypto plans has not affected the share price of OSL’s parent company, BC Technology Group, and is unlikely to have a material impact on the crypto industry in Singapore.
Technician’s opinion: BTC’s upward momentum signals remain intact.
bitcoin (BTC): $46,702 +1.2%
Ether (ETH): $3,544 +2.1%
The best losers
There are no losers in CoinDesk 20 today.
S&P 500: 4,545 -0.3%
DJIA: 34,818 +0.4%
Nasdaq: 14,261 -0.2%
Gold: $1,925 + 0.2
Bitcoin, ether rises late
Bitcoin started the weekend quietly, but on Sunday night the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization had surpassed $47,300 at one point, a gain of 2.6% from 24 hours earlier. BTC, which had fallen below $46,000 early on Saturday, was more recently trading at around $46,700.
Ether, the second-largest crypto by market capitalization, followed a similar trend as it dipped and then regained ground to break above the $3,550 level, up around 3% over the same time frame.
Major altcoins were mixed, with some up and some down slightly. Meme DOGE coin is up around 5% on at least one occasion compared to 24 hours earlier. DOGE alternative SHIB grew more modestly. Solana and Cardano have recently risen 3% and 2% respectively. Terra’s Luna token was around 2%.
Trading was off higher levels earlier in the week, as is often the case on weekends.
Crypto’s weekend surge deviated slightly from the performance of major stock markets on Friday, which did little more than hold ground from the previous day. The tech-heavy Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell slightly as investors appeared to want the US Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world to pursue more hawkish monetary policies.
Low interest rates and central bank stimulus measures that can shake an economy from a slumber drive asset prices higher. But when inflation rises and the economy overheats, central banks undo these accommodative policies, which usually leads to greater market volatility.
Meanwhile, the macroeconomic environment has remained as volatile as it has been since Russia invaded Ukraine five weeks ago. Following the publication of images of horrific civilian casualties in Bucha, a town near the Ukrainian capital Kyiv, German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht said in a television interview that the European Union should consider Russian gas imports.
Countries in the EU bloc have resisted the move, fearing it could send their economies into recession. Brent crude oil, a widely watched measure of energy prices, was trading at $102 a barrel, a massive rise since the start of the year.
Still, the crypto rally late last month may not be over, said Joe DiPasquale, CEO of fund manager BitBull Capital.
“Bitcon’s consolidation above $46,000 will be key to a bullish continuation towards the $50,000 cap,” DiPasquale said, striking a cautiously bullish note. “Although we saw a rejection around $48,000, as long as BTC remains above $46,000, the bulls can hope for another move. If we lose these levels in the new week, another test of the 40 $000 low is the likely scenario.”
DBS crypto reversal harms OSL, but only a little
DBS’s about-face decision on a retail crypto exchange – canceling its plan to open one by the end of 2022 – leaves us with two questions: is this another chapter in the continued tightening of crypto regulations? in Singapore? And will it stop OSL, the Hong Kong-based institutional exchange that provides DBS with exchange software?
The answer to both is, not really.
It’s no secret that the authorities in Singapore are not big fans of retail crypto trading. Earlier this year, regulators banned direct-to-consumer marketing for exchanges and told crypto ATM operators to turn off their machines. It also placed DeFiance Capital, one of the city-state’s largest crypto funds, on an investor alert list because it was “misperceived as being authorized or regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.” .
But Singapore has not changed its tone on institutional investing in crypto. This has always been what the country has wanted to develop as a hub, not a retail business, which requires nanny-like regulations to ensure that amateur traders leveraging their retirement savings are not rekt when their crypto position is liquidated. Needing to regulate with a heavy hand is not what Singapore wants.
If DBS were to actually launch a retail crypto exchange, it wouldn’t look like many retail traders are used to seeing. There would be a limited selection of tokens, and decentralized finance (DeFi) would definitely be out of the question. While there would undoubtedly be an element of convenience due to the integration with banking, it would be difficult to attract significant volume as it would not be competitive with major exchanges in terms of features.
In its recent results, OSL’s parent company, BC Technology Group, highlighted its software as a service (licensing its exchange software to other entities) as a growth point.
Company cites “SaaS service fees of HK$10.1 million ($1.2 million), a 104.2% year-over-year increase” as driving growth of this quarter, specifically naming its partnership with DBS as a way to expand the business beyond institutional-only and retail.
But compared to the group’s revenue of HK$352 million (US$45 million), this amount is insignificant.
“OSL’s institutional exposure and licensing status far overshadows this slight negative,” Esme Pau, analyst at Tonghai Securities, told CoinDesk. “With [its] core business at the service of professional investors. The OSL is a proxy for the institutionalization of digital assets. In the larger scheme of things, increasing regulatory clarity is the definitive future direction of travel for digital assets.
Investors didn’t seem to care either. Even after the news broke, the stock continued its week-long winning streak with Hong Kong markets up 5%.
Tonghai predicts that the company will make a profit in the medium term given the competitive moat it has as the only licensed exchange in Hong Kong – a much larger and less competitive market than DBS’s retail crypto game.
Bitcoin’s weekly price chart shows support/resistance, with MACD at the bottom. (Damanick Dantes/CoinDesk, TradingView)
Bitcoin (BTC) bounced off short-term support at $44,000 as momentum improved.
The cryptocurrency is up 5% over the past week, although resistance at $48,000 and $50,996 may stall the rally, similar to what happened in September last year.
This time, however, the pullbacks could be brief, as long as the buyers are defending support above $43,000-$45,000. Additionally, the significant loss of downward momentum, according to the MACD indicator, over the past few weeks could encourage additional buying should prices decline.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is approaching neutral territory after an overbought reading emerged on March 28th. This suggests a pause in the current price rise, which usually occurs at the beginning of the month.
For now, BTC is testing support around its previous breakout point at $45,000. Upside exhaustion signals, according to DeMARK indicators, provided a timely countertrend reversal setup earlier this week, although a continuation of this sell signal has not been confirmed. This means that the price action is currently neutral, awaiting a decisive break above or below the five-day price range.
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9:30 a.m. HKT/SGT (1:30 a.m. UTC): Australian and New Zealand banking group job announcements (March)
22:00 HKT/SGT (14:00 UTC): US factory orders (month of March)